Millenarian Thoughts about Kosovo
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Rebecca West's book was first published in 1940. By that time, it was common wisdom that the Balkans are the place where the destiny of our world is determined or, at the very least, outlined. Had she lived today, she would have had no reason to revise this particular judgement of hers.
The Kosovo "air campaign" exposed and brought to culmination
a series of historical processes whose importance cannot be exaggerated.
The Russian Revolution
Forced to choose between nationalist delusions of imperial grandeur and modern capitalism and its attendant, individualism - Russia chose the latter. The ever surprising Yeltsin completed the revolution he started in 1990 by deposing of the last vestiges of stagnation personified by Primakov. The remnants of the former nomenclature, the establishment figures, the fossils in the ideological swamp that communism has become - were given the penultimate slip. Russia was forced to peer into the abyss of its own corruption, nepotism, criminality, social and political disintegration and military impotence. It was forced to do so by the developments in the Kosovo crisis. It was made to elect between pan-Slavism and pan-capitalism. For a while, it seemed to have been choosing the former - leading to an inevitable and suicidal confrontation with the victorious civilization of the West. Then it recoiled and chose the IMF over the KGB, material goods over ideological fervour, the new myths of modernity over the old ones of blood-steeped patriotism.
It is a momentous event, the consequences of which cannot
yet be fully fathomed. Extrapolating Russian history, it would be reasonable
to expect a backlash in the form of a counterrevolution. A communist counter-revolution
being unlikely - we can expect a fascist-criminal counter-revolution. But
it is as safe to assume that the revolution is irreversible, setbacks aside.
It is irreversible because for the first time it generated vested interests
not only for a select elite - but for everyone. Prosperity tends to trickle
down and, as it does (forming a middle class in its wake) - it knows no
boundaries of class. The real revolution has just been completed in Russia,
70 years after Lenin's death. And all classes are about to win.
The Second Cold War
The outlines of the second cold war have emerged. It is
to be fought between a prosperous, almighty, vainglorious, narcissistic,
self-righteous, contemptuous and increasingly disintegrating USA and an
equally disintegrating China on the economic ascendant.
The second cold war (already in progress) is fought not between foes - but between partners. The extent of economic interests common to the two current combatants far exceeds anything achieved in the high moments of detante between the USA and its previous rival, Russia. This cold war is about markets and cultural dominance - not sheer, projected, military prowess. It is a throwback to earlier days of colonialism and mercantilism and it is laden with historical memories and sensitivities.
The aims are different, as well. China wishes to force the USA to throw open the gates of the global marketplace, currently zealously guarded by the only superpower. The IMF, the World Bank, the WTO are all believed to be extensions of the American economic clout, put to the use of its geopolitical interests. Russia forced its way into the G8 but China has much loftier ambitions. It is not in pursuit of membership in gentlemen's clubs - it aspires to real, raw power. It wants to carve the world between itself and the West. In short, it wants to dominate and to export and it wants the West to help it do so. In return, it promises regional and internal stability and access to its markets. To convince the West of the quality of its wares, China demonstrates its capacity to destabilize in various corners of the world. It transfers weapons technology, support international terrorism and rogue states and, in general, places formidable obstacles in the path to Pax Americana, the New World Order.
The Americans regard this as a reasonable deal but they wish to reverse the cause and the effect. First, they want to gain unhindered access to the potentially infinite Chinese market and to have the Chinese deliver the regional and international stability they claim to be able to deliver. Only then are they willing to contemplate the coveted prize of graduating to the co-ownership of the world financial and economic architecture.
China is fighting for legitimacy, recognition, access to markets, capital and technology and the ability to reshape the world in its favour. The USA is fighting to check progress of the Chinese on all these fronts. Such fundamental differences are bound to lead to conflict - as, indeed, they have.
In this sense, the bombing of the Chinese embassy has been an auspicious event because it allowed both parties to break through, to unlock and a deadlock and to make progress towards a fuller integration of China into the WTO, for instance. It also legitimized the airing of grievances against the style and conduct of the USA in world affairs. In short, it was cathartic and useful.
The Demise of the Client States
The concept of the client states is so well entrenched
in our historical consciousness that its demise has been denied and repressed.
There are no longer alliances between powerful political units (such as
the USA) and smaller, dependent, satellites. The kaleidoscopically shifting
interests of the few remaining global powers dictate geopolitical transigence
and ideological transparency. These adaptive processes lead to a myriad
of alliances, forever changing to fit the needs and interests of the moment
or to cater to future contingencies. Thus, Russia ignores Yugoslavia's
pleas for help, China allows the USA, Japan and South Korea to conduct
direct negotiations with North Korea, America bullies Israel into a settlement
with the Palestinians (who support Iraq), the UK and the USA impose a peace
plan on the IRA, Russia respects an embargo imposed on both Iraq and Yugoslavia
and so on. These are the roots of a truly global order. It is also the
death knell for rogue and "insane" states. Devoid of their patronage, these
countries are gradually tamed by the awesome twin forces of the global
market and international capital and information flows. Iran moderates,
Libya surrenders, Yugoslavia succumbs, the only exception being Iraq.
This is NOT to say that warfare is a thing of the past. On the very contrary. In the absence of the overwhelmingly restraining impulses and impositions of the superpowers - ethnic strife, border skirmishes, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction - all are likely to increase. But these are already affairs of limited importance, confined to parts of the world of limited importance, fought amongst people of ever more limited importance. War marginalizes the warriors because it takes them out of the circulation of capital, information and goods. Decoupled from these essential flows, warring parties wither and shrivel.
The Convergence of Economic and Military Alliances
The Kosovo crisis started as an exercise in self re-definition.
NATO used it to successfully put its cohesiveness to test. It acted sanely
and its hypercomplex set of checks and balances and more checks scored
an impressive success. As a result, the limited aims and means of the campaign
were maintained and NATO was not dragged into either British belligerence
or Italian and Greek defeatism. It was the second time in recent history
(the first being another multilateral military campaign in the Gulf in
1991) - that a military move did not degenerate into full scale insanity
of carnage and bloodshed.
NATO emerged as a self-restrained, well-choreographed, well co-ordinated body of professionals who go through motions and off the shelf plans with lifeless automatism. While somewhat aesthetically repulsive, this image is a great deterrent. We fear cold-blooded, impartial machines of war more than we do any hot blooded, sword wielding fanatic. NATO acted with the famous German industrial efficiency that gave warfare a bad name. It was "surgically precise" and civilian casualties were alchemically converted into "collateral damage". The well practised Jamie Shea is an exceptionally chilling sight.
Thus, a policeman was born to police the emerging world of international commerce, true multinationals, boundariless flows of data and chaotic reactions to changes in local variables. This policeman is NATO and it wields an awesome club. As it chooses which criminals to discipline, it transforms the nature of previously unruly neighbourhoods. For this, at least, we should be grateful.