An Evaluation of the Devaluation
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Rumours about a devaluation of the Macedonian Denar versus the major currencies were in the air during the last few weeks. Still, no government official had to lie. The market just did not believe it. The unofficial exchange rate stayed put at 27 MKD to the Deutschmark even as the devaluation was taking place.
This is strange. Devaluation rumours are usually reflected in the street exchange rates. The MKD has held its turf against other currencies in the last three years. A devaluation seemed like a reasonable proposition - or was it ?
Why do governments devalue ?
They do it mainly to improve the balance of trade. A devaluation means that more local currency is needed to purchase imports and exporters get more local currency when they convert the export proceeds (the foreign exchange that they get for their exports). In other words : imports become more expensive - and exporters earn more money. This is supposed to discourage imports - and to encourage exports and, in turn, to reduce trade deficits.
At least, this is the older, conventional thinking. A devaluation is supposed to improve the competitiveness of exporters in their foreign markets. They can even afford to reduce their prices in their export markets and to finance this reduction from the windfall profits that they get from the devaluation. In professional jargon we say that a devaluation "improves the terms of trade".
But before we examine the question whether all this is true in the case of Macedonia - let us study a numerical example.
Let us assume that we have a national economy with for types of products :
Imported, Exported, Locally Produced Import Substitutes, Locally consumed Exportable Products. In an economy in equilibrium all four will be identically priced, let us say at 2700 Denars (= 100 DEM) each.
When the exchange rate is 27 MKD/DM, the total consumption of these products will not be influenced by their price. Rather, considerations of quality, availability, customer service, market positioning, status symbols and so on will influence the consumption decision.
But this will all change when the exchange rate is 31 MKD/DM following a devaluation.
The Imported product will now be sold locally at 3100. The Importer will have to pay more MKD to get the same amount of DM that he needs to pay the foreign manufacturer of the product that he is importing.
The Exported products will now fetch the exporter the same amount of income in foreign exchange. Yet, when converted to MKD - he will receive 400 MKD more than before the devaluation. He could use this money to increase his profits - or to reduce the price of his product in the foreign markets and sell more (which will also increase his profits).
The Locally Produced Import Substitutes will benefit : they will still be priced at 2700 - while the competition (Imports) will have to increase the price to 3100 not to lose money !
The local consumption of products which can, in principle, be exported - will go down. The exporter will prefer to export them and get more MKD for his foreign exchange earnings.
These are the subtle mechanisms by which exports go up and imports go down following a devaluation.
In Macedonia, the situation is less clear. There is a great component of imported raw materials in the exported industrial products. The price of this component will increase. The price of capital assets (machinery, technology, intellectual property, software) will also increase and make it more difficult for local businesses to invest in their future. Still, it is safe to say that the overall effect of the devaluation will favour exporters and exports and reduce imports marginally.
Unfortunately, most of the imports are indispensable at any price (inelastic demand curve) : raw materials, capital assets, credits, even cars. People buy cars not only to drive them - but also in order to preserve the value of their money. Cars in Macedonia are a commodity and a store of value and these functions are difficult to substitute.
But this is all in an idealized country which really exists
nowhere. In reality, devaluation tends to increase inflation (=the general
price level) and thus have an adverse macro-economic effect. Four mechanisms
operate immediately following a devaluation :
The government, employee trade unions and representatives of employers’ unions - sign "economic pacts or package deals".
The government undertakes not to raise fees for public services, the employers agree not to fire people or not to reduce wages and employee trade unions agree not to demand wage hikes and not to strike.
Such economic pacts have been very successful in stabilizing inflation in many countries, from Israel to Argentina.
Still, some of the devaluation inevitably seeps into the wages. The government can effectively control only such employees as are in its direct employment. It cannot dictate to the private sector.
Granted, the government of Macedonia and its Central Bank are not entirely autonomous in setting the economic priorities and in deciding which measures to adopt and to what extent. They have to attune themselves to "advice" (not to say dictates or conditions) given by the likes of the IMF. If they fail to do so, the IMF and the World Bank will cut Macedonia off the bloodlines of international credits. The situation is, at times, very close to coercion.
Still, Macedonia could use successful examples in other
countries to argue its case. It could have made this devaluation a turning
point for the economy. It could have reached a nationwide consensus to
work towards a better economic future within a national "Economic Agenda".
It is still not to late to do so. A devaluation should be an essential
part of any economic program. It could still be the cornerstone in an export
driven, employment oriented, economy stimulating edifice.